"The Burning Issue"

By Dr DK Giri, Director, Schumacher Centre.

The first major battle in the quest to prevent runaway climate change involved persuading the world that the global warming threat was terrible and real. This battle is being won. Those that rubbish the very notion of man-made climate change are a hysterically vocal but ever decreasing minority. But now there is a new and maddening hurdle to overcome.

Some in the international community not only accept that climate change is happening, but are thrilled at the prospect too. Certain nations are, behind closed doors, talking excitedly about the “positives” of climate change. If such a dangerous lunacy is allowed to continue unchecked, then instead of stumbling blindly and ignorantly towards our destruction, it seems we will dance towards it instead.

Russia has been struggling to hide its excitement at the prospect of permafrost melt in the Arctic. Why? Because the rapid melting seen in this region means that it will become possible, for the first time, for ships to travel from Europe to China and Japan through the Arctic sea.

The new Arctic passage above Russia would slash thousands of miles from the journey between the the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The shipping industry is licking its lips at the thought of the immense possible profits. Russia, which would stand to effectively control the passage, is doing the same.

Nick Mabey, a former UK government environmental advisor, said in November 2008: “The Russians are now showing a dangerous indifference to the whole issue of climate change because they have this perception they might actually benefit.” Talking to The Australian newspaper, he added: “That perception is not supported by the science, because the drastic climate change we are seeing in the Arctic will have enormous effects right around the world. But the worrying thing is that they (the Russian Government) do seem to think they won’t be severely damaged by climate change.”

The potential short-term boom would not just be limited to shipping. The Economist previously reported that one quarter of the world’s untapped energy reserves might be in the Arctic. Russia, which has claims over around half of the Arctic region, would finally gain access to these glittering resources.

Global warming is, in the short term, very good for Greenland’s agricultural industry. The country is now, for the first time in its history, envisaging the possibility of being agriculturally self-sufficient. In the last three years potato farming has boomed in the country. Such new riches are helping in Greenland’s journey to full independence from Denmark. Parts of Greenland are now experiencing 20 deg. C temperatures in summer.

But needless to say, the medium and long term prospects for Greenland and Russia in a future without radically reduced carbon emissions are the same as anywhere else. It is a future of destruction and death.

The rapidly melting permafrost in the Arctic threatens to submerge millions who live in coastal regions around the world within the next five decades. The phenomenon can be linked to the recent floods seen in Bangladesh. Researchers have also said the amount of carbon frozen in within ancient soil under the permafrost is double previously estimated and will be released once thawing sets in. This stands to dramatically increase the speed of global warming.

In India the picture very simple – there are no perceived ‘benefits’ of climate change, only problems. This year north India is witnessing a painful summer, with drinking water in limited supply, a whimper of a monsoon, constant power cuts and the threat of drought. These discomforts will only grow if the world’s carbon output is not checked, and our upward growth will turn into a downward spiral of poverty. India must ensure, as part of the ‘global south,’ that excitement at the thought of new Arctic sea routes is replaced by fear.

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